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The Top 10 Films That Will Rule The Box Office In 2016-forbes list

02 Mar

Superheroes, sci-fi
and fantasy, and animated
family fare will top next year’s
charts in a big way, all of
them either sequels, spinoffs,
remakes, or adaptations of
some sort.
I suspect the four top
contenders will be Rogue One:
A Star Wars Story, Captain
America: Civil War , Batman v
Superman: Dawn of Justice,
and Fantastic Beasts and
Where to Find Them. Too bad
Warner didn’t title the last one
Fantastic Beasts: Where To
Find Them , then we’d have a
battle of subtitled cinema. But
that said, there are several
others that demand attention
and cannot be ignored as
powerful contenders, many of
which could indeed challenge
the position of those other four
movies at the top of the 2016
box office list.
Let’s look at the whole slate
of rulers of next year’s
releases, and what they have
to offer. So, in no particular
order…
Batman v Superman: Dawn
of Justice — Opening in
March, the full kickoff of the
DC Comics shared cinematic
universe is going to do
monster business. Batman is a
billion dollar brand, having
topped that box office high-
bar twice in a row with his
last two films. Putting him
alongside other superheroes
seems like an easy bet for
continuing that trend.
Superman himself rebooted to
the tune of $668 million in
2013′s Man of Steel , a figure
restrained by the previous
Superman reboot/revival’s
relatively tepid response and
fine but not spectacular $391
million. However, keep in
mind that $668 million is what
“slight underperforming”
looks like to the last son of
Krypton, and that we not only
have the added value of
Batman but also the first-ever
big screen Wonder Woman
and Aquaman showing up, not
to mention probably a Flash
cameo and Cyborg in the mix.
It would be absurd and
unreasonable to expect those
bonuses to produce anything
less than a big box office
boost. Even if Batman v
Superman were bad, I don’t
believe that could prevent it
from enjoying a blockbuster
financial performance north of
$800 million, since it’ll open
massive around the world and
just by the sheer power of the
concept and Batman’s
presence it should have at
least moderate legs. So if it’s
good or better, it should break
$1 billion. If it’s great, then
we’re probably talking
Avengers level numbers or
better. If it’s great, then I
think it can match or top
Avengers: Age of Ultron , and
possibly The Avengers. But
even if it manages that feat,
can it beat Marvel’s next
super-team blockbuster that
opens just six weeks later?
Captain America: Civil War
— I’ve said it before and I’ll
say it again, this will be
Marvel’s biggest film yet. Yes,
it’s a Captain America sequel,
and Cap’s last movie
performed at $714 million
globally, making it the fifth-
highest grossing Marvel
Studios movie to date.
However, that was a huge leap
over his previous star-
spangled outing, which clocked
$370 million around the world
just a few years earlier, and
the same team from Winter
Soldier in the driver’s seat for
Civil War . More to the point,
though, this is a Cap sequel
that’s really an Avengers-level
movie. It features a large cast,
including some major
newcomers in the form of
Spider-Man, Black Panther,
and more. Marvel is going to
promote this as an event
picture, something larger than
just a Captain America sequel,
because it can in fact be both.
The ace up Marvel’s sleeve is
of course Spider-Man, who
will interact with other heroes
on the big screen for the first
time. So it’s a sequel to that
awesome Captain America: The
Winter Soldier movie you
loved, AND it’s got all of the
Avengers, AND they fight each
other, AND it introduces
Spider-Man. If it’s as good as it
looks, and as good as the
creative team has the potential
to make it, then we’re looking
at a film that should achieve
the same must-see repeat-
viewing status of the original
Avengers film, but with more
theaters and more 3D receipts.
I anticipate this will be the
movie that performs the way
everyone expected Avengers:
Age of Ultron to perform (not
to suggest Age of Ultron
underperformed, it was a
massive hit by any measure;
I’m merely noting that it was
for quite a while assumed it
would pass the box office of its
predecessor), and will become
the highest grossing superhero
movie in history. Meaning, yes,
even if Batman v Superman
surpasses the two Avengers
movies on the all-time box
office list, I still believe Civil
War will end up the reigning
champ.
Fantastic Beasts and Where
to Find Them — There are
probably only two films that
might sneak past the
superhero battle royal movies
mentioned above and steal the
title of highest grossing film of
the year, and a Harry Potter
spinoff is probably one of
them (the other being a
spinoff of an even bigger
franchise, but we’ll get to that
in a moment). J.K. Rowling’s
world of wizards brought in
$7.7 billion at the worldwide
box office and another $2+
billion in home entertainment,
with five of the franchise’s
eight entries topping $900+
million and the last
movie topping $1.3 billion.
Suffice to say, this is among
the most popular and success
properties in cinema history,
with more films under it’s
brand belt than most other
modern film series.
The anticipation for a new
Harry Potter -related movie,
and one written by Rowling
herself no less, should help
enhance this movie’s buzz
immensely. All it has to do is
be good. If it can do that, then
I think it’s pretty reasonable to
expect it to join the $1 billion
club, and if it’s great then it
could catch fire and be a
breakout akin to this year’s
Furious 7 or Jurassic World .
Regardless, the franchise
connection alone pretty well
guarantees this one a spot
among 2016′s biggest earners.
Finding Dory — I just
explained the other day how
Minions is on its way to
becoming the second-highest
grossing animated film in
history , headed past $1 billion
and destined to sit behind only
Frozen on the all-time
animation list. Well, this
movie is the animated picture
that will knock Minions right
back out of that #2 position
and could even challenge
Frozen for #1. The first
Finding Nemo made $864
million… in 2003… without 3D
tickets. When it got a 3D
rerelease a few years ago, it
added $72 million to its
coffers, raising its all-time
total to $936 million. That’s
$1.2 billion in today’s dollars,
folks. Meaning if this sequel
can match the popularity of
the original, it’s going to give
Frozen a run for it’s money
for sure.
What it must do, however, is
not only retain the same
family-friendly appeal of its
predecessor, but also reach out
and appeal to the original fans
of the first film who are now
in their teens or even
early-20s (and might have
small children of their own).
Meaning it needs to
incorporate a bit more humor
aimed at older sensibilities
without losing the G-rated
sensibilities that allowed it to
benefit from apparently
endless theatrical rewatching
by parents and children. Few
animated franchises outside of
Toy Story seem like such sure
bets for topping $1 billion, but
this is definitely one of them.
The Jungle Book — It’s early
to call this one a likely top
performer, but if you saw the
footage at D23 this month then
you know why this film
already looks likely to wow
audiences and amaze critics.
Jon Favreau knows how to
deliver great entertainment,
and the imagery from this film
was mind-blowing. Nothing
you’ve seen in visual effects
and CGI work for animals,
creatures, and outdoor settings
will prepare you for what
you’ll see in this film, if the
sizzle reel Disney unveiled is
any hint of what to expect. Not
that crazy-great effects and
talking animals in and of itself
guarantees blockbuster
success, of course. No, what
the footage also revealed was
a beloved classic story
revisited not only with grand
scale but also with deep
emotions.
I’m betting the footage and
buzz is an accurate reflection
of what’s coming, and it could
turn out to be Disney’s biggest
live-action adaptation yet. How
high might it climb? The live-
action Cinderella topped $542
million this year, with a
March release date. The April
release date for this new film
is slightly better in terms of
kids being out of school for
Spring Break, and it moves the
theatrical run closer to the
start of summer box office
season. It has to face the
competition from Batman v
Superman and Captain
America: Civil War , as well
as The Huntsman, Alice
Through the Looking Glass , X-
Men: Apocalypse , plus perhaps
Ratchet & Clank and The Angry
Birds Movie . That sounds bad,
but most of those films roll out
after The Jungle Book releases,
over a period of six weeks.
That’s steady competition, but
it leaves room for The Jungle
Book to open big, hold strong,
and get some legs under it. I
expect a final tally north of
$500+ million, more likely in
the $700+ million range.
X-Men: Apocalypse — The X-
Men franchise finally found
the path to true box office
glory last year with X-Men:
Days of Future Past, by far the
highest grossing entry in the
superhero franchise at $748
million. That was a massive
leap not only financially, but
also for the size of the series’
fanbase. Audiences were so
impressed they helped the
movie perform like a Marvel
Studios production, and next
year’s new mutant picture is
shaping up to provide
audiences more of that comic
book aesthetic wrapped
around a dramatic, serious
approach to superhero
storytelling.
The franchise has a loyal
following already, so the key is
to retain the large influx of
new viewers and turn them
into solid fans who will keep
coming back so long as the
studio delivers the goods.
Meaning Apocalypse seeks to
deliver those goods in
spades, and should have no
trouble securing a healthy
$700+ million for itself as it
rides not only its own newly
discovered coattails, but those
of Batman v Superman and
Captain America: Civil War if
both of those films prove as
good and as popular as seems
likely. The audience good will
coming off of those films will
put theatergoers in the right
mood to remember how much
they enjoyed Days of Future
Past and tune in to this new
entry to complete the trifecta
of early-summer superhero
fun at the box office. My guess
is this will happen, and it’ll
result in the biggest win yet
for the X-Men .
Turn the page to keep reading
and see the rest of the films
that will dominate the box
office in 2016!

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Posted by on March 2, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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